Both the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Basins around the U.S. are unusually quiet and are forecast to remain so for the next two weeks. The Central Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Seasons begin on June 1 and run through the end of November; typically, activity picks up in August with peak activity by mid-September before waning for the season. This year, though, things have been very quiet, especially in the Atlantic, where there’s been no tropical system for weeks.
While NOAA is forecasting for an above-normal season in the Atlantic and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is calling for an above-normal season in the central Pacific basin which includes Hawaii, there’s no tropical activity in either basin at this time. While there’s a slight chance some tropical waves may develop into something in the eastern Pacific, there appears to be no threat to the U.S. at anytime in the near future. In fact, the American GFS global computer forecast model suggests there will be no tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere around the United States through the end of the month.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who leads the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, the last time there’s been no activity in the Atlantic from July 15 through August 19 was in 1982. We asked Dr. Klotzbach about the last times there were no hurricanes through the end of August from mid-July; he responded, “It’s happened twice since NHC records began in 1851: 1914 and 1922. Of course, we probably missed a few storms in those years, given the limited observational network we had at the time.”
While there is a lull in the hurricane season now, things could come roaring back to life in September. As such, people shouldn’t let their guard down. If people don’t yet have a Hurricane Action Plan in order, they should get one now.