Matthew and Nicole are spinning about, with one posing grave danger to the United States east coast and the other weakening and drifting away from land.
As of the 1pm update from the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Matthew was near 29.5N 80.7W, about 25 miles east-north-east of Ormond Beach, FL and about 70 miles south-east of Jacksonville Beach, FL. Maximum sustained winds are 120mph and recent satellite photography suggests the storm may be gaining some strength this afternoon. The storm is moving north-north-west at 12mph and minimum central pressure is at 947mb (27.97″.) Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. A wind gust to 69 mph was recently reported at St. Augustine. Major Hurricane Matthew is a Category 3 storm.
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeastward to Surf City , North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet has been iscontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
- Cocoa Beach to Surf City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach
- North of Surf City to Duck
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
There are numerous hazards associated with Hurricane Matthew. They include:
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday.
Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River…6 to 9 ft
- Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida…4 to 6 ft
- Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina… 4 to 6 ft
- Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach, Florida…2 to 4 ft
- Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds…2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina.
Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina…with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding.
An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today.
Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
While Hurricane Matthew is an ongoing threat to the United States, Hurricane Nicole weakened to Tropical Storm status. Strong shear has taken its toll on Nicole overnight. The cyclone’s cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated, with the low-level center
now exposed to the northwest of a greatly reduced area of deep convection. Nicole has barely been moving, and the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. Although Nicole remains in a region of weak steering at the moment, a blocking mid-level high should build north of the cyclone soon, and impart a slow motion generally toward the south for the next couple of days. Around 48 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to develop to the east of Nicole, which should result in the cyclone gradually turning northward with some increase in forward speed through the remainder of the forecast period; most of the model guidance is in better agreement than yesterday on this scenario, which increases the overall confidence of the track forecast.
A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough digging to the east of Nicole should cause deep-layer northerly shear over the cyclone to increase further today. In the wake of the shortwave, the shear should veer to the north-northeast but remain just as strong through about 72 hours. Nicole is also shown interacting with a lobe of vorticity that fractures from the shortwave, but it remains unclear how this interaction would affect the cyclone’s intensity or structure. Regardless, the overall hostile environment should cause weakening, perhaps even more than indicated in this forecast.
Indications are that late in the forecast period the large- scale environment should become more conducive for Nicole to re-intensify, but to what extent is in doubt. As a result of developments overnight, the new intensity forecast is substantially lower than the previous one and is below all of the intensity guidance through 72 hours.
For more information on Matthew, Nicole, or other activity in the tropics, be sure to visit our Hurricane & Tropical Weather page here: http://www.weatherboy.com/hurricanes-tropical-weather/