The Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking the next potential tropical threat to the United States Coast. The NHC believes this storm system they’ve been tracking since last week will become the busy season’s next named tropical cyclone.
According to the latest Tropical Outlook issued by the NHC, shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during that time frame.
The next storm to be named in the Atlantic basin will be called “Isaias.” If Isaias were to form in the coming days, it would break the record for the earliest “I” storm in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. The current record-holder for earliest I storm is 2005’s Irene, which formed on August 7 of that year.
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) July 27, 2020
According to the National Hurricane Center, this system is forecast to move westward to west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late Wednesday regardless of any tropical cyclone development.
The National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance that one will form in at least the next 5 days. These odds are a bit lower from yesterday; just last night, the National Hurricane Center had the odds as high as 90% for tropical cyclone formation.
While forecast model track accuracy is low in this stage of tropical cyclone development, it is notable to point out that most guidance brings this future system to or near the U.S. East Coast with time. People from Florida to Maine should not let their guard down with hurricane season here, especially with this potential system forming in the Atlantic.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season typically peaks in September and runs through to the end of November.