The 2019 Hurricane Season continues; while things remain quiet in the Atlantic hurricane basin, the Pacific is perking up. In the latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), no tropical cyclone formation is now expected at all over the Caribbean, Atlantic, or Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. However, in the Pacific basin, two areas are likely to become tropical cyclones in the next 5 days and direct or indirect impacts on Hawaii are possible beyond a week.
According to the NHC, recent satellite imagery indicates that the area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is located a little more than 1,000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is beginning to show some signs of organization. Based on the latest Tropical Outlook, environmental conditions are favorable for additional development and the NHC expects a tropical depression or tropical storm to form here by early next week. For now, this system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The NHC believes there’s a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a high 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days.
The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. According to the NHC, some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. While the NHC believes there’s only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 2 days, those odds increase to a high 70% for formation over the next 5 days.
Extended guidance from computer forecast models suggest that these disturbances could impact, directly or indirectly, the State of Hawaii over time. However, any such impacts are more than a week away and it is far too soon to know what, if any, impacts these storms could have on Hawaii.
Hurricane season continues in both the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane basins through the end of November.
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Director, Chris Brenchley, described to us today how his Honolulu team coordinates, collaborates, & even swaps staff with Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) to keep America #HurricaneStrong💪@NWSHonolulu pic.twitter.com/W1WM2EeXeC
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) May 23, 2019