An area that doesn’t need more heavy rain and severe weather is forecast to get just that. storm system will move through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. According to meteorologists at the National Weather Service, storms moving through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday would be capable of producing severe weather and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding.
A variety of meteorological ingredients are coming together to create the severe weather event. As mid-level flow continues to become more quasi-zonal Monday night and Tuesday, aided by the eastward progress of a longwave trough in eastern Canada, the setup will improve rapidly for convection. A strong perturbation will move from the Great Lakes region Monday night to the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Tuesday, likely convectively enhanced via a mesoscale convective system. With fast winds shifting at high speeds at different levels of the atmosphere, all kinds of severe weather are possible: destructive wind gusts, damaging large hail, and even isolated tornadoes. With increasing moisture in advance of the slow-moving front, heavy rainfall will be another issue to deal with. Conditions may even favor numerous storms re-firing up over the same area over and over, leading to flash flood concerns there.
It appears this severe weather will strike either later Tuesday or Wednesday. Two disturbances will approach the area, each bringing the potential of setting-off this severe weather outbreak in portions of the Mid Atlantic. Timing and impacts should be refined by Monday as more data is digested by computer forecast models and the meteorologists that use them.
While severe weather is likely, it is also likely high pressure will return for the end of the week. As such, dry weather will return after this bout of heavy rain and severe storms.