The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now believes there’s a high chance that a disturbance in the Atlantic will become a tropical cyclone in the coming days. This area is one of two the National Hurricane Center began tracking yesterday for potential development.
The most robust system is in the central Atlantic. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized, according to the NHC. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. If the system is able to increase strength to tropical storm status prior to entering that more hostile environment, it would be named Tropical Storm Beryl. In their latest Tropical Outlook, the NHC believes there’s a 70% chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The second system is closer to the U.S. East Coast but has a less chance of development than the first. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak trough of low pressure. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development and likely prevent any direct impacts to the U.S. coast. The NHC believes there’s a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 50% over the next five days.