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Bering Sea Rule Suggests Warmth, Severe Storms Returning in March

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Map shows incredible warmth over a one week period during February 2017. Image Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

Map shows incredible warmth over a one week period during February 2017. Image Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center

Meteorologists look at weather patterns around the globe to help determine short and medium range forecasts; one such pattern explored is the Bering Sea Rule, and it suggests that incredible warmth will return to much of the United States come mid-March. The unusual warm weather could also be joined by another severe weather outbreak.

Joseph Renken, who developed a long-range forecasting tool called the Bering Sea Rule (BSR), believes current signals suggest a wild and warm March. “Severe thunderstorms look likely on the tenth and eleventh of the month from the central Plains, eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and extending into the mid-Atlantic region.” Renken further explained, “A low pressure system will form over the lee of the Rockies and  over the Plains of Colorado, and will head east-northeastward. Its associated cold front will push into the Plains and head eastward and will be the cause of this severe weather outbreak.”  Renken believes the pattern setting up won’t just create one severe weather outbreak. “Even though climatologically-normal temperatures are rising very fast in the middle of the month, we can expect temperature departures to be in the 10-20 degrees above normal range across much of the central and eastern U.S., which are very similar departures to what the same area of the country saw over the mid and late part of February.”


Renken believes that another anomalous warm spell  that could rival February’s is possible.  “Around the 27th of February, the combination of high pressure just to the south of Kodiak Island and a strong storm between Attu Island and the Kamchatka peninsula will exaggerate the ridging over the east Aleutian Island chain. Another storm a few days later, as the calendar flips to March, near the Sea of Oshkosh, will cause the ridge to become even stronger and to be forced westward. With the 18-day lag that the BSR is currently showing, this ridge should teleconnect to a strong ridge over the central part of the U.S. starting around the 14th of March.”

These maps produced by Joseph Renken and his BSR team overlay a map of the continental United States onto a National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center Pacific map.

These maps produced by Joseph Renken and his BSR team overlay a map of the continental United States onto a National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center Pacific map.

 

If the forecast comes to fruition, such a ridge over the central US will be associated with incredible warmth. Temperatures in the 80s and even 90s will be common for much of the southern and central Plains as well as the adjacent Mississippi valley region. Renken adds that the configuration of this warm air mass will be slightly different, which could have implications for New England. “There is a difference between this upcoming ridge and the one that was associated with all the warmth of the past few weeks as it will be centered a bit further to the west. This will leave the Northeast, particularly New England, more at risk of some backdoor cold fronts that will hold back the warming the more northeast one is.” But with lack of snowcover, anomalously warm southern Canada, and a gradually higher warming sun angle, cold shots for New England likely won’t be too long nor too harsh.  “It should only be a matter of time until the warmth from the ridge across the central US  is pushed eastward thanks to a continued unusually strong Pacific jet. So while New England may be cooler longer, they too will warm.”,  Renken said.


That strong Pacific jet and atmospheric rivers of moisture have blasted the US west coast, especially California, with heavy rain; this evolving weather pattern may help California dry out a bit in March, albeit briefly.  As the Pacific jet weakens somewhat, the first part of March will allow places like California to recover from recent heavy, record-breaking precipitation. However, as the Bering Sea ridge weakens, the Pacific Jet will become active again  Renken expanded:  “The Pacific jet has incorrectly been described as part of the ‘Pineapple Express’ this winter. Generally this winter, that description has been inaccurate. California has been dumped on not because of moisture from the tropics,  such as the Pineapple Express, but simply because the strength and persistence of the west to east flow across the Pacific has picked up oceanic moisture that it is forced to drop once it encounters the Sierra Nevadas.” Don’t put away the umbrellas and snow shovels yet.  “As the central ridge flexes its muscles in a few weeks, the Pacific jet will yet again lengthen and strengthen. And its aim will continue to be on the Sierra Nevadas of California.” With heavy precipitation returning by mid-March, drought conditions will be further eliminated while threats of floods and other heavy-precipitation-related disasters mount.

Bering Sea Rule Hints at Winter’s Next Steps

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With blizzard conditions impacting portions of the Northeast last Thursday and a fresh blizzard impacting New England and especially Maine today into tomorrow, many questions remain on the table: Will the cold weather stick around? Can we expect any more snow?

We spent time with  Joseph Renken, founder of the Bering Sea Rule (BSR), to get his thoughts on what is occurring now across the Continental United States and what the BSR and other long range tools say is in store for the rest of the winter.

Method of blending the Bering Sea and the U.S. upper level pattern together; illustration shows the troughy setup in the Northeast that allowed for a major winter storm to form. Image: organicforecasting.com

Method of blending the Bering Sea and the U.S. upper level pattern together; illustration shows the troughy setup in the Northeast that allowed for a major winter storm to form. Image: organicforecasting.com

Though not overly optimistic for a sustained snowy and cold pattern to setup in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Renken did offer some hope after the region gets through  a very mild stretch of weather coming up the next week or so. “The BSR depicted this past snow event on Wednesday night and Thursday for the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast very well.” Renken added, “A trailing wave of low pressure that developed into the Thursday snowstorm was portrayed nicely by what was going on in the Bering Sea around January 22.”


A  troughy pattern in the Northeast was expected around the 9th and 10th of this month which led to the area of low pressure system spinning up. Behind this system,  an air mass with Pacific origins will dominate the entire continental US. A much stronger than normal jetstream over the eastern Pacific will force this air mass inland. The much stronger than normal Pacific jetstream has been a persistent feature for much of this entire winter and is at least partly responsible for the mild temperatures experienced so far in the east

This is a warm pattern upcoming for much of the U.S., especially east of the Rockies. In the 10 day period ending around the 22nd of this month, many areas of the country will be 10 degrees above normal with some as high as 20 degrees above normal. Though New England will be the slowest to warm, after the current blizzard departs, temperatures will soar even there to well above normal readings about a week from now. While they warm slowly in New England, temperatures in the Midwest, Great Lakes and South will be well above normal for much of this upcoming week.

“A strong area of high pressure over the North Pacific near the Gulf of Alaska retrograded, meaning it headed west, instead of the normal east that most weather systems take (in late January) and this teleconnected to a ridge of high pressure off the Southeast coast heading west and dominating the eastern US,” explains Renken.  This type of weather pattern encourages a strong west to east flow across the Lower Forty Eight  and will combine with the much stronger than normal Pacific jetstream to allow warmth to dominate.


While the pattern indicates a warm stretch of weather, a change is also likely around the 20th of the month. “This very well could be another severe weather outbreak with the Southeast with the Gulf Coast states being the area seeing the greatest threat for severe weather,” Mr. Renken stressed.

This storm will be followed by a change to more normal temperatures.  Mr. Renken explained, “The stronger than normal jetstream slamming into California has been the overwhelming meteorological factor in our mild winter so far. And there is no sign of this factor going away. Plus Canada has been running way above normal temperature-wise. Combining these and other factors, I don’t think a pattern of sustained cold in the East will exist.”  After the stormy period that’ll set-up around February 20-22  and into March, the BSR indicates a volatile back and forth temperature pattern with some cold snaps but the cold is generally muted.


By the time the calendar turns to March, coastal cities and ones south of the Mason-Dixon Line are running short on time in terms of meaningful snowfall. If a snowstorm does not happen with the 1st week or two of March in cities like Baltimore, Washington D.C. and Philadelphia, the clock has ran out time for snow lovers. Further to the north and inland, snowstorms can occur a bit later.

When the winter of 2016-17 is in the books, most of the country will be above average temperature-wise. California will remember it as a bumper year in terms of rain and snow, one that they sorely needed. But for snow lovers in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, it appears short of a few localized blizzards, the winter will be known for its near misses and rainstorms.