The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is cautioning people to the possibility that severe weather will return to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York this afternoon and evening. The SPC has already issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Pennsylvania due to this threat.
According to the SPC, initial convective development is occurring in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Storm coverage is expected to increase by 4pm local time .
The current visible satellite shows relatively few breaks within the cloud cover across western and central Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio. Areas that have remained relatively clear have heated to the mid- to upper-70s, contributing to atmospheric instability. Areas of cumulus clouds that have developed along and near a confluence axis in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania shows that convective inhibition has nearly been eliminated. With the convective inhibition eliminated, the environment is expected to support severe storm development. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms, according to the SPC. They also say a tornado or two are also possible, with the greatest threat of tornadic cells over Pennsylvania.
Because of the threat of tornadic cells beyond severe wind and hail, the National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for a portion of Pennsylvania through 11pm tonight. A watch is issued when severe thunderstorms are expected and the threat of tornadic activity is higher than usual.