As we enter the third week of the 2018 Atlantic and Central Pacific Hurricane seasons, things are quiet with no disturbances and forecasts of none likely for at least the next five days. The same isn’t true for the Eastern Pacific, where the National Hurricane Center believes two systems could form.
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Upper level winds are expected to become more conducive for development over the next day or so, and according to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days.
A second broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity, which has increased slightly in organization. According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the disturbance moves toward the north or north-northeast at about 5 mph over the open eastern North Pacific. The system is expected to reach cooler waters early next week, which will limit the potential for development. With some conditions favorable for development but many factors against development, the National Hurricane Center believes there’s only a 50-50 chance that this system will develop over the next five days.