NHC meteorologist Eric Blake, who worked on the outlook product, said, “One of my favorite outlooks that I’ve issued due to its weirdness. It will be a true model triumph if it develops,” pointing out that the outlook doesn’t necessarily translate to a sure thing.
According to the latest outlook from the NHC that Blake wrote, “A trough of low pressure over western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi is forecast to move over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico where a low pressure area could form early next week.” Models such as the American GFS and European ECMWF have both suggested some formation here, leading meteorologists to believe that some gradual development of the system is possible as it drifts westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. However, the NHC pegs such odds as low. For now, they say there’s a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and only a 20% chance of formation over the next 5 days.