Computer forecast guidance is consistent in showing clear signals that a significant storm will impact the northeast during the middle of next week. While it is still too soon to lock down specifics of who will get snow or rain or how much of each, it is becoming more likely than not that moderate to heavy precipitation will fall across the northeast around November 12-14 with another chance of another system later in the week. While climatology favors locations in inland New England for frozen precipitation this time of year, model guidance, including the global forecast models American GFS and European ECMWF suggest snow could fall as far south as the Mid Atlantic at some point next week.
The reason for the winter storm potentials is a rather energetic weather pattern during the extended period with a large trough moving across the east next week. The upper troughs will be accompanied by a surface low and attached fronts which will bring precipitation east next week. While we’ve seen this set-up for this week’s storm and last week’s, we’re also starting to see colder air from Canada able to infiltrate these systems. With colder air able to be tapped by these systems as we head deeper into autumn, the chances for wintry precipitation increase.
Some are looking forward to an early visit by Old Man Winter. “I love the snow. I am also an “old timer” who remembers weather back in the 60’s and 70’s. A snowstorm, even a major one, was perfectly normal for this time of year. Worrying about traveling for Thanksgiving, was a yearly occurrence. I miss the winter weather in November, and will be happy to see a major snowstorm next week,” Lynn Jones tells us in the Weatherboy Weather Community. Colleen Jobes agrees, saying, “Bring it on!! I can’t wait for the first snowfall. I love it!” Cristin McCarthy Krokosz adds, “I’d rather have snow instead of rain and 40-degree temps any day!”
Not everyone is excited by the prospect of snow. Robert Casto tells us he hates snow. “Too many people work professions that force them to tempt fate during dangerous storms. Snow is nothing but a hazard.” Bill Cook agrees, adding, “people can’t even drive in the rain without screwing that up. You mention snow and we’re doomed.”