A system will bring measurable snow to portions of the Mid Atlantic this weekend. While some flurries or light snow showers are possible in places like Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, the best chance for accumulating snow will be south of those areas as a system moves through Saturday into Sunday.
A battle between very cold, dry air and a moist low pressure system will be fought in the Mid Atlantic this weekend. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the dry, cold air is forecast to win over the north Atlantic and the I-95 corridor between Philadelphia and Boston. But snow lovers in Virginia and West Virginia will be delighted by some decent snowfall from this quick moving system. An Arctic high pressure system is forecast to be located in northwestern Ontario, Canada on Friday night. The high will extend southeastward into the Mid Atlantic; by Sunday, it should reach Quebec, Canada and continue to supply cold air into this weekend storm system. A mid level short wave trough is expected to drop down from the northwest with its axis passing over the northeastern states early on Sunday. Another mid level short wave trough is forecast to pass across the southeastern states on Saturday night and off the Middle Atlantic coast on Sunday. A surface low will be coincident with the mid level feature.
Light snow is forecast to move into the southern and central Mid Atlantic region Saturday afternon. But with dew point readings so low due to the very dry cold air mass, it will probably take time for any snow to accumulate. Right now, it appears as though it will be a light snow event for eastern Pennsylvania and central New Jersey which should be on the northern edge of the precipitation field. Further south, into portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, snow could accumulate to around 3-4″. Some areas could also see more than 6″ of snow where the most robust available moisture amounts will interact with the cold air.
The weather pattern doesn’t support much in the way of amplification of this system. Nor does the pattern support this system moving up the coast. As such, with dry air winning this battle, the northern edge of snow will sink south on Sunday. (See: Pattern Doesn’t Support Snow)
Because the system won’t intensify much, winds, even at the coast, shouldn’t be too bad with this storm. A northeast wind is anticipated to increase to 10 to 20 mph on the coastal plain on Sunday afternoon. Speeds should be 10 mph or less further inland.
Snow will taper off by late Sunday from west to east as the storm exits out to sea. Monday should be fair and dry across this region.