The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather north of Puerto Rico .A broad area of low pressure is moving toward the west-northwest and is now located about 150 miles north of Hispaniola. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Since upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for tropical cyclone formation, further development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur.
In their latest five day outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes there’s a 50% chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. They believe there is a low chance of development over the next 48 hours, pegged at 30%.
The low and its associated activity is forecast to move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front. If a tropical cyclone doesn’t form prior to the that merger, it will likely be quickly swept out to sea.
The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through the end of November.