Hurricane Alvin has begun to weaken, but eyes are on another disturbance that could become a tropical cyclone, become named Barbara, and potentially impact Hawaii directly or indirectly over time.
Alvin, which grew to the first hurricane of the 2019 Eastern Pacific season yesterday, has started to weaken, becoming a tropical storm once again. In the latest advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 116.3 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast by the National Hurricane Center over the next day or two, and Alvin is projected to become a remnant low on Saturday and should dissipate soon thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
While Alvin is weakening, a new tropical cyclone is forecast to take shape well south and east of it over open waters of the eastern Pacific. Unlike Alvin, this next system is expected to strengthen over time, with global computer forecast models such as the American GFS and European ECMWF each suggesting that it could approach Hawaii in July. Meteorologists with the Honolulu-based Central Pacific Hurricane Center are forecasting an above-normal hurricane season in their basin, and this next system could be the first threat of the season. It is still far too early to say what impacts, direct or indirect, this next system could have on Hawaii; any such impact is more than a week away from now. Should this tropical cyclone form in the Eastern Pacific basin, it would be given the name Barbara. If it moved into the Central Pacific Basin as a named storm, it would keep the name Barbara. The National Hurricane Center believes there is an 80% chance that this new disturbance will become a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days.
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Director, Chris Brenchley, described to us today how his Honolulu team coordinates, collaborates, & even swaps staff with Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) to keep America #HurricaneStrong💪@NWSHonolulu pic.twitter.com/W1WM2EeXeC
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) May 23, 2019